Month-long bookings: even at 20% off, one leaves more than short stays until occupancy reaches 94%

On our own figures, a month-long booking at 20% off leaves more than short stays would, unless the month was going to reach 94% occupancy. Short stays bring in more revenue; once cleaning comes off, the order reverses.

The figures were measured on 1 October 2026 across the twelve months from October 2025 to September 2026 at our own three buildings and six rooms in Tokyo and Sapporo, 489 bookings, and are published with the method at operating data. This article is a conversion from those averages, not a count of month-long bookings, and it promises nothing for any other property.

What long-stay discounts do you actually set?

Our four Tokyo listings take 10% off from 7 nights and 15% to 20% off from 28 nights. Those are the settings we confirmed on our booking calendar on 1 November 2026, and the calendar applies them automatically.

A single Tokyo booking tops out at 30 nights, so anything longer comes to us as an enquiry and is agreed individually. In Sapporo we arrange long-stay conditions case by case, so there is no flat monthly rate.

What is the gap between 28 days of short stays and one 28-night booking?

Against short stays at our 83.7% average occupancy, a 28-night booking at 20% off leaves about 2.4 nights more after cleaning. The unit is one night at our own rate, so the comparison needs no amounts.

Over 28 days, 83.7% occupancy sells 23.4 nights, split at 3.3 nights a stay into about 7.1 bookings. Cleaning is 17.0% of revenue, which leaves 19.5. The long booking is 28 nights less 20%, or 22.4, minus one clean at 0.56 nights, which leaves 21.8. That 0.56 is 17.0% times 3.3 nights, an update of the 0.58 in our piece on the 3.3-night average, which used an older ratio.

At 15% off, the long booking leaves 23.2, and on paper it ties with short stays even at 100% occupancy. The table below is in nights; the last column is the 21.8 from a 20% long booking minus the short-stay figure after cleaning.

If short stays bring in more revenue, why do they end up behind?

Because a long booking removes empty nights and cleaning at the same time. At average occupancy it fills 28 nights instead of 23.4, and turns about seven changeovers into one.

Look at revenue alone and 22.4 nights sits below 23.4, so a monthly sales report on its own makes the long booking look like a loss.

Taking our 20% management fee off keeps the same order and widens the gap to about 2.6 nights. The fee is charged on revenue, so in this case the operator receives less while the owner keeps more. That is why we make this comparison after cleaning, not on sales.

How often did a month actually pass 94%?

Twice in 24 city-months: Tokyo at 95.2% in October 2025 and Sapporo at 94.0% in February 2026, counting twelve months in each city.

Those are city averages. One room's particular 28 days can run higher, and a long booking rarely lines up with a calendar month. Treat the line as a guide and read it against how far occupancy moves month to month at the property itself.

What does a long booking take away?

Mostly the chance to raise the rate. At our average occupancy, short stays earning about 10% more per night than the long booking would cancel its lead at 20% off; at 15% off, about 16%.

A long booking fixes 28 nights of rate at the moment it is made and takes any peak dates with it. Our median booking is made 42 days before arrival, so you give up the room to review the nightly rate as demand shows. One cancellation costs all 28 nights at once. Long-stay cancellation terms differ by platform, so check the current ones.

Costs barely move. The extra 4.6 occupied nights add about 0.16 nights at our electricity and gas ratio of 3.4%, and a final clean twice as heavy costs another 0.56 without changing the order. Water is not in our figures, though, and a guest who lives in a room uses it differently, so heating in a Sapporo winter needs checking property by property.

Review opportunities also fall from about seven to one. That loss is hard to put in numbers, and we weigh it most heavily at a newly opened property.

When do you take one, and when not?

The decision is made when discounts and rates are set, not when the booking arrives. The calendar applies the discount by itself, so there is rarely a moment to say no.

We move the rate first as the calendar fills, so the discount applies to that rate. We also watch the gaps a long booking leaves either side, because any gap under the minimum stay (2 nights at HEIWAJIMA, 3 at KAMEARI) cannot be sold.

Is a one-month stay lodging or a lease?

We do not give a blanket answer, because the line depends on the contract and on the property's own permit. Check this before doing any of the discount arithmetic.

First, tell the local public health centre (hokenjo, the office that licenses lodging) what permit the property holds and what kind of booking you plan, and ask whether it can be taken as it stands. Next, read the building's management rules if it is a condominium, or your lease if you rent it, for whether long stays are allowed. If you plan a separate contract, ask an administrative scrivener or lawyer; for accommodation tax and consumption tax, ask a tax accountant. Our own arrangement does not transfer to another property as it stands.

How do I run this for my own property?

You need three figures: the month's occupancy, cleaning as a share of revenue, and the average stay. For short stays, multiply 28 by occupancy and take off the cleaning share. For the long booking, take the discounted nights and subtract one clean, which is the cleaning share times the average stay. The larger number is the answer for that property in that month.

When we run a property, we redo this calculation on its own results after opening and set discounts and minimum stays from them. We do not promise that long bookings will arrive.